ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Andrea Guerrieri

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · F 13:00

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

60.69%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

39.31%

Average Odds

1.84 / 1.87

Market probability

50.40% / 49.60%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1741 vs 1647), a stronger serve (67.5% vs 60.5% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.19).

Player Comparison

1642.0 Elo 1689.4

1741.0 Elo (surface) 1647.3

71 Wins (Challenger) 54

16 Wins (surface) 14

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.189 Dominance ratio 1.054

182 Rank 213

20.5 Age 27.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

58.3%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Andrea Guerrieri

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Andrea Guerrieri #187

Joel Schwaerzler #171

3-6 6-4 6-1

7 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 90

40 First Serve In 51

29 First Serve Won 32

24 Second Serve Won 16

7 Break Points Saved 9

10 Break Points Faced 14

32 Winners 20

37 Unforced Errors 40

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-09

F

Joel Schwaerzler #182

Andrea Guerrieri #213

7-6 6-1

8 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 58

40 First Serve In 30

32 First Serve Won 21

15 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Joel Schwaerzler vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction