ATP tennis predict — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · qualification - round of 16 15:00

Predicted probability

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Uruguay

71.41%

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Argentina

28.59%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.00

Market probability

81.43% / 18.57%

Why This Prediction?

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1533), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1696 vs 1546) and better recent form (2 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1670.9 Elo 1533.4

1695.6 Elo (surface) 1546.2

24 Wins (Challenger) 38

24 Wins (surface) 38

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.115 Dominance ratio 1.140

336 Rank 538

21.5 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-17.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

1st Serve In %

63.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

52.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.04

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.2%

68.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

85.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

63.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

44.1%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.2%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

55.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo 1 – 0 Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Clay Tigre CH · 2026-02-16

Q2

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #579

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez #498

6-4 6-1

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 58

40 First Serve In 39

24 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 5

7 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez — Prediction