ATP tennis predict — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Uruguay

53.14%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

46.86%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.00

Market probability

53.91% / 46.09%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1694.1 Elo 1744.6

1718.0 Elo (surface) 1761.7

26 Wins (Challenger) 78

26 Wins (surface) 69

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.115 Dominance ratio 0.938

342 Rank 206

21.5 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-17.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

63.8%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.6%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.6%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.04

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.1%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

58.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

25.0%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo and Lautaro Midon have never played each other.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction