ATP tennis predict — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Uruguay

47.67%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

52.33%

Average Odds

1.31 / 2.12

Market probability

61.81% / 38.19%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1616.6 Elo 1720.3

1644.1 Elo (surface) 1738.0

21 Wins (Challenger) 225

21 Wins (surface) 222

10 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.115 Dominance ratio 0.934

384 Rank 196

21.5 Age 31.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-17.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

63.8%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.6%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.6%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.04

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.9%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

43.1%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

53.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo 0 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Tigre 2 CH · 2026-02-23

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #280

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #566

6-7(4) 6-2 2-0 RET

3 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

67 Service Points 87

35 First Serve In 51

23 First Serve Won 25

19 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction