ATP tennis predict — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · SF 21:00

Predicted probability

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Uruguay

57.61%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

42.39%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.68

Market probability

65.21% / 34.79%

Why This Prediction?

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.15) and a stronger serve (59.9% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1685.9 Elo 1695.4

1712.8 Elo (surface) 1703.9

23 Wins (Challenger) 89

23 Wins (surface) 89

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.115 Dominance ratio 0.948

384 Rank 240

21.5 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-17.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

63.8%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.6%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.6%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.04

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

48.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

51.0%

34.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo and Alex Barrena have never played each other.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Alex Barrena — Prediction