ATP tennis predict — Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

69.36%

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Bolivia

30.64%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.39

Market probability

78.96% / 21.04%

Why This Prediction?

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1672 vs 1539), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1685 vs 1556) and a stronger serve (60.6% vs 57.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1672.1 Elo 1539.1

1685.3 Elo (surface) 1555.8

133 Wins (Challenger) 115

125 Wins (surface) 115

7 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.886 Dominance ratio 1.024

231 Rank 403

26.5 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

1st Serve In %

62.9%

69.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

57.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

40.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.07

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 1 – 1 Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Clay Porto Alegre CH · 2025-04-28

R16

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #384

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #222

6-2 6-1

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

41 Service Points 48

29 First Serve In 32

25 First Serve Won 16

6 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Buenos Aires Tigre CH · 2025-01-13

R16

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #184

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #431

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4

5 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 1

116 Service Points 101

72 First Serve In 55

46 First Serve Won 34

23 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 10

9 Break Points Faced 16