ATP tennis predict — Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · R16 23:30

Predicted probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

37.62%

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

62.38%

Average Odds

2.37 / 1.49

Market probability

38.60% / 61.40%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1753 vs 1694), a higher Elo rating (1727 vs 1681) and a stronger return game (41.9% vs 34.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1680.6 Elo 1727.3

1694.2 Elo (surface) 1752.5

134 Wins (Challenger) 147

126 Wins (surface) 142

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.886 Dominance ratio 1.247

231 Rank 270

26.5 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–7L · 22.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1st Serve In %

62.9%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.5%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.2%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

62.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.8%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

25.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

57.7%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 0 – 2 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Clay Curitiba challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #270

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #231

6-3 4-6 6-3

5 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Buenos Aires CH · 2025-09-22

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #285

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #222

6-0 3-6 6-4

1 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 93

52 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 38

8 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 12

7 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Coquimbo CH · 2023-05-01

F

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #293

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #282

7-6(1) 6-7(4) 6-4

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

118 Service Points 121

84 First Serve In 79

62 First Serve Won 49

14 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Last 10

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Last 10