ATP tennis predict — Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Guido Ivan Justo

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

41.88%

Guido Ivan Justo

Argentina

58.12%

Average Odds

1.96 / 1.74

Market probability

47.03% / 52.97%

Why This Prediction?

Guido Ivan Justo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1782 vs 1694), a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1678) and a stronger return game (38.5% vs 34.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1677.7 Elo 1765.0

1694.2 Elo (surface) 1781.6

135 Wins (Challenger) 91

127 Wins (surface) 91

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.886 Dominance ratio 1.020

230 Rank 188

26.5 Age 28.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–7L · 22.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Guido Ivan Justo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Guido Ivan Justo

1st Serve In %

62.9%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

52.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.5%

23.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

55.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Guido Ivan Justo

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

18.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

36.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.1%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 0 – 1 Guido Ivan Justo

Clay Florianopolis CH · 2025-11-17

R16

Guido Ivan Justo #365

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #187

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2

8 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

91 Service Points 111

55 First Serve In 76

40 First Serve Won 49

20 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 13

4 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Guido Ivan Justo — Prediction