ATP tennis predict — Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Tulln challenger · SF 13:45

Predicted probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

47.59%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

52.41%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.31

Market probability

59.69% / 40.31%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1668.9 Elo 1663.5

1682.6 Elo (surface) 1667.2

132 Wins (Challenger) 83

124 Wins (surface) 83

7 Last 15 form 9

3 Head-to-head wins 1

0.886 Dominance ratio 0.948

282 Rank 235

26.5 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

62.9%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.5%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.07

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 3 – 1 Alex Barrena

Clay Tulln challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #282

Alex Barrena #235

6-2 6-3

4 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 23

11 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Heilbronn challenger · 2026-06-02

1. round

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #198

Alex Barrena #190

6-3 3-6 6-3

2 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 83

57 First Serve In 34

37 First Serve Won 21

17 Second Serve Won 29

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 7

31 Winners 15

50 Unforced Errors 32

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Porto Alegre CH · 2025-04-28

QF

Alex Barrena #568

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #384

4-6 6-3 6-3

5 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 5

90 Service Points 97

62 First Serve In 55

39 First Serve Won 35

16 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Cordoba CH · 2025-03-03

Q2

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #426

Alex Barrena #573

6-1 1-0 RET

3 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 3

26 Service Points 33

16 First Serve In 17

10 First Serve Won 9

9 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Buenos Aires CH · 2022-06-20

R32

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #492

Alex Barrena #951

6-3 1-6 6-4

2 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

86 Service Points 88

60 First Serve In 65

36 First Serve Won 39

16 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 10

12 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Alex Barrena — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Last 10

Alex Barrena — Last 10