ATP tennis predict — Joao Fonseca vs Casper Ruud

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Joao Fonseca

Brazil

59.18%

Casper Ruud

Norway

40.82%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.16

Market probability

56.10% / 43.90%

Why This Prediction?

Joao Fonseca is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1799 vs 1697), fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.11) and more aces per game (0.27 vs 0.10).

Player Comparison

1817.1 Elo 1877.2

1799.5 Elo (surface) 1697.5

62 Wins 351

33 Wins (surface) 156

10 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.973 Dominance ratio 1.239

27 Rank 14

20.0 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Fonseca

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud

1st Serve In %

66.8%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

50.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.3%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

56.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

71.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

38.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Fonseca 1 – 0 Casper Ruud

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-08

3. round

Joao Fonseca #27

Casper Ruud #14

7-6 6-3

3 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 2

65 Service Points 78

37 First Serve In 50

25 First Serve Won 36

16 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 7

24 Winners 35

29 Unforced Errors 25

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Clay French Open · 2026-05-31

R16

Joao Fonseca #30

Casper Ruud #16

7-5 7-6 5-7 6-2

7 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 0

159 Service Points 141

117 First Serve In 103

78 First Serve Won 74

22 Second Serve Won 23

9 Break Points Saved 7

13 Break Points Faced 9

51 Winners 51

52 Unforced Errors 52

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Joao Fonseca vs Casper Ruud — Prediction