ATP tennis predict — Joao Fonseca vs Botic Van De Zandschulp

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Joao Fonseca

Brazil

69.10%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

30.90%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.28

Market probability

71.00% / 29.00%

Why This Prediction?

Joao Fonseca is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1794 vs 1716), a higher Elo rating (1823 vs 1753) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 62.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1823.1 Elo 1752.9

1793.6 Elo (surface) 1716.1

63 Wins 170

34 Wins (surface) 113

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.952 Dominance ratio 1.042

27 Rank 70

20.0 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joao Fonseca

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Fonseca Botic Van De Zandschulp

1st Serve In %

66.8%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.3%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joao Fonseca Botic Van De Zandschulp

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joao Fonseca 1 – 1 Botic Van De Zandschulp

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Joao Fonseca #26

Botic Van De Zandschulp #59

6-4 7-6

2 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 8

72 Service Points 68

46 First Serve In 35

29 First Serve Won 29

17 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 3

17 Winners 22

21 Unforced Errors 42

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Hard Brussels · 2025-10-13

R32

Botic Van De Zandschulp #86

Joao Fonseca #45

7-5 7-6(2)

15 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 96

48 First Serve In 56

42 First Serve Won 37

9 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Davis Cup Finals RR: NED vs BRA · 2024-09-12

RR

Joao Fonseca #158

Botic Van De Zandschulp #68

6-4 7-6(3)

8 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 4

61 Service Points 76

50 First Serve In 53

42 First Serve Won 42

8 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 3