ATP tennis predict — Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot

ATP Hard Tokyo · SF 11:00

Predicted probability

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

61.02%

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

38.98%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.62

Market probability

63.75% / 36.25%

Why This Prediction?

Jiri Lehecka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2081 vs 2009), a stronger return game (38.8% vs 34.2% of return points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

2080.6 Elo 2008.8

2017.7 Elo (surface) 1960.6

166 Wins 55

115 Wins (surface) 34

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.310 Dominance ratio 1.052

23 Rank 18

24.9 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Valentin Vacherot

1st Serve In %

59.2%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

79.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.8%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Valentin Vacherot

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.2%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jiri Lehecka 0 – 1 Valentin Vacherot

Hard Paris Masters · 2025-10-27

R64

Valentin Vacherot #40

Jiri Lehecka #18

6-1 6-3

7 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 1

39 Service Points 45

24 First Serve In 34

20 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot — Prediction