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Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

56.25%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

43.75%

Average Odds

1.54  /  2.48

Market probability

61.69%  /  38.31%

Why This Prediction?

Jiri Lehecka is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (38.2% vs 35.9% of return points won), a stronger serve (70.2% vs 64.0% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

1820.7 Elo 1855.5
1812.1 Elo (surface) 1829.2
163 Wins 427
112 Wins (surface) 255
9 Last 15 form 11
2 Head-to-head wins 2
1.284 Dominance ratio 0.996
19 Rank 53
24.8 Age 28.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

60.4%
60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%
73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.6%
46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%
25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%
45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.60
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%
80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%
62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%
29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41
0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

66.7%
59.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%
75.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jiri Lehecka 22 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04
2-6 6-1 7-6 6-1
3 Aces 12
6 Double Faults 5
102 Service Points 109
60 First Serve In 64
43 First Serve Won 46
17 Second Serve Won 27
4 Break Points Saved 2
9 Break Points Faced 5
22 Winners 34
41 Unforced Errors 30
2.5 Average Odds 1.5
Hard Antwerp · 2024-10-14
8 Aces 8
0 Double Faults 1
52 Service Points 72
32 First Serve In 41
29 First Serve Won 27
12 Second Serve Won 18
0 Break Points Saved 5
0 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2024-03-04
7 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 4
50 Service Points 63
31 First Serve In 28
26 First Serve Won 18
13 Second Serve Won 17
4 Break Points Saved 7
4 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16
6-3 7-6(2) 6-4
9 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 4
100 Service Points 97
66 First Serve In 62
53 First Serve Won 49
22 Second Serve Won 15
8 Break Points Saved 4
8 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Rotterdam · 2022-02-07
5 Aces 7
1 Double Faults 6
79 Service Points 96
51 First Serve In 55
41 First Serve Won 40
16 Second Serve Won 19
2 Break Points Saved 2
3 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Jiri Lehecka — Last 10

L W W L W L W W L L

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Last 10

L W W W L W L W L W