ATP tennis predict — Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

74.23%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

25.77%

Average Odds

1.24 / 4.13

Market probability

76.91% / 23.09%

Why This Prediction?

Jiri Lehecka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1780 vs 1703), a higher Elo rating (1798 vs 1746) and a stronger serve (70.6% vs 59.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1797.7 Elo 1745.9

1779.5 Elo (surface) 1703.0

161 Wins 335

110 Wins (surface) 185

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.280 Dominance ratio 0.924

19 Rank 66

24.8 Age 35.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

60.4%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.6%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jiri Lehecka 1 – 1 Pablo Carreno Busta

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Jiri Lehecka #19

Pablo Carreno Busta #66

6-1 7-6 4-6 6-2

10 Aces 0

7 Double Faults 7

120 Service Points 117

66 First Serve In 89

51 First Serve Won 52

25 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 14

44 Winners 17

42 Unforced Errors 40

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Clay French Open · 2026-05-25

1. round

Pablo Carreno Busta #89

Jiri Lehecka #12

6-3 7-6 6-3

10 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 4

71 Service Points 101

45 First Serve In 67

38 First Serve Won 47

21 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 11

23 Winners 22

17 Unforced Errors 46

4.6 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Dubai · 2026-02-23

R16

Jiri Lehecka #24

Pablo Carreno Busta #124

7-6(6) 6-4

16 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 0

85 Service Points 67

54 First Serve In 45

40 First Serve Won 27

16 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction