ATP tennis predict — Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

57.50%

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

42.50%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.35

Market probability

59.80% / 40.20%

Why This Prediction?

Jiri Lehecka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1781 vs 1700), a stronger return game (37.2% vs 30.6% of return points won) and a stronger serve (68.0% vs 66.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1794.1 Elo 1854.6

1780.6 Elo (surface) 1699.5

160 Wins 240

109 Wins (surface) 115

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.164 Dominance ratio 0.906

12 Rank 40

24.8 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Matteo Berrettini

1st Serve In %

60.4%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.6%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jiri Lehecka Matteo Berrettini

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

72.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

47.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jiri Lehecka 0 – 0 Matteo Berrettini

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Jiri Lehecka #14

Matteo Berrettini #42

6-4 6-7 6-3

13 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 0

96 Service Points 84

63 First Serve In 53

50 First Serve Won 43

22 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6

35 Winners 16

39 Unforced Errors 31

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini — Prediction