ATP tennis predict — Jie Cui vs Fajing Sun

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Jie Cui

China

63.83%

Fajing Sun

China

36.17%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.59

Market probability

41.51% / 58.49%

Why This Prediction?

Jie Cui is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1526 vs 1409), a stronger return game (33.8% vs 30.9% of return points won) and more aces per game (0.18 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1525.9 Elo 1409.5

1527.1 Elo (surface) 1556.7

51 Wins (Challenger) 81

50 Wins (surface) 80

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.995 Dominance ratio 1.188

454 Rank 323

28.6 Age 29.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jie Cui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jie Cui Fajing Sun

1st Serve In %

65.4%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.9%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

58.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jie Cui Fajing Sun

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jie Cui 0 – 0 Fajing Sun

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Jie Cui #454

Fajing Sun #323

7-5 6-4

6 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 0

61 Service Points 87

40 First Serve In 57

35 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Jie Cui vs Fajing Sun — Prediction