ATP tennis predict — Jie Cui vs Aziz Dougaz

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · QF 09:30

Predicted probability

Jie Cui

China

43.07%

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

56.93%

Average Odds

2.89 / 1.38

Market probability

32.32% / 67.68%

Why This Prediction?

Aziz Dougaz is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (68.3% vs 57.9% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1560) and a higher Elo rating (1588 vs 1559).

Player Comparison

1559.3 Elo 1588.0

1559.9 Elo (surface) 1592.7

51 Wins (Challenger) 83

50 Wins (surface) 61

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.816 Dominance ratio 1.136

450 Rank 690

28.6 Age 29.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jie Cui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz

1st Serve In %

65.4%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.9%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

50.8%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

51.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jie Cui 0 – 0 Aziz Dougaz

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Aziz Dougaz #690

Jie Cui #450

6-2 4-6 7-5

2 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

107 Service Points 86

70 First Serve In 56

46 First Serve Won 41

18 Second Serve Won 17

9 Break Points Saved 0

13 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Jie Cui vs Aziz Dougaz — Prediction