ATP tennis predict — Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Clay Bastad · R16

Predicted probability

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

42.06%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

57.94%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.96

Market probability

51.85% / 48.15%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Baez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1816 vs 1750), a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1716) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1716.1 Elo 1760.3

1749.6 Elo (surface) 1815.9

65 Wins 142

32 Wins (surface) 101

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.971 Dominance ratio 0.862

73 Rank 56

26.1 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

59.0%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong 0 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-16

R16

Sebastian Baez #56

Jesper De Jong #73

6-4 6-2

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

48 Service Points 46

31 First Serve In 31

21 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 1

10 Winners 17

26 Unforced Errors 18

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction