ATP tennis predict — Jesper De Jong vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

53.49%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

46.51%

Average Odds

1.62 / 2.11

Market probability

56.57% / 43.43%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1692.0 Elo 1596.8

1635.8 Elo (surface) 1604.9

139 Wins (Challenger) 51

28 Wins (surface) 30

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.273 Dominance ratio 1.036

106 Rank 155

26.2 Age 20.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

59.0%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong 0 – 0 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-20

R16

Jesper De Jong #106

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #155

6-3 6-1

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 58

27 First Serve In 33

22 First Serve Won 19

14 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Jesper De Jong vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction