ATP tennis predict — Jesper De Jong vs Hugo Gaston

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · QF 18:30

Predicted probability

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

48.37%

Hugo Gaston

France

51.63%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.21

Market probability

57.85% / 42.15%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1700.7 Elo 1679.4

1652.8 Elo (surface) 1721.3

140 Wins (Challenger) 134

29 Wins (surface) 62

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.363 Dominance ratio 1.066

106 Rank 97

26.2 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

59.0%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-21

QF

Hugo Gaston #97

Jesper De Jong #106

7-6 6-1

3 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 55

32 First Serve In 25

22 First Serve Won 18

9 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Braga CH · 2021-09-20

QF

Hugo Gaston #115

Jesper De Jong #247

6-3 6-1

2 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 55

24 First Serve In 34

20 First Serve Won 19

15 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jesper De Jong vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction