ATP tennis predict — Jesper De Jong vs Francesco Passaro

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

41.65%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

58.35%

Average Odds

1.74 / 2.09

Market probability

54.57% / 45.43%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Passaro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1625) and a higher Elo rating (1713 vs 1679).

Player Comparison

1679.1 Elo 1712.7

1625.1 Elo (surface) 1715.6

65 Wins 46

27 Wins (surface) 25

7 Last 15 form 9

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.051 Dominance ratio 1.070

100 Rank 207

26.2 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

59.0%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

34.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong 2 – 0 Francesco Passaro

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Jesper De Jong #100

Francesco Passaro #207

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2

14 Aces 8

15 Double Faults 7

136 Service Points 146

65 First Serve In 85

53 First Serve Won 58

32 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 12

12 Break Points Faced 19

45 Winners 46

41 Unforced Errors 61

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

R128

Jesper De Jong #88

Francesco Passaro #139

3-6 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(1) 6-1

9 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 6

147 Service Points 178

96 First Serve In 123

77 First Serve Won 81

26 Second Serve Won 24

2 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Cagliari CH · 2024-04-29

Q2

Jesper De Jong #156

Francesco Passaro #238

6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(1)

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 108

68 First Serve In 81

53 First Serve Won 49

16 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 10