ATP tennis predict — Jesper De Jong vs Dane Sweeny

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

66.47%

Dane Sweeny

Australia

33.53%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.60

Market probability

64.52% / 35.48%

Why This Prediction?

Jesper De Jong is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1624 vs 1485), a higher Elo rating (1684 vs 1565) and more aces per game (0.29 vs 0.18).

Player Comparison

1684.0 Elo 1565.1

1624.2 Elo (surface) 1485.1

138 Wins (Challenger) 72

27 Wins (surface) 66

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.236 Dominance ratio 1.250

106 Rank 124

26.2 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Dane Sweeny

1st Serve In %

59.0%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jesper De Jong Dane Sweeny

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong 0 – 0 Dane Sweeny

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Jesper De Jong #106

Dane Sweeny #124

7-5 6-0

9 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 6

57 Service Points 47

37 First Serve In 28

27 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Jesper De Jong vs Dane Sweeny — Prediction