ATP tennis predict — Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet

ATP Hard Los Cabos · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jenson Brooksby

USA

59.80%

Corentin Moutet

France

40.20%

Average Odds

1.98 / 1.81

Market probability

47.76% / 52.24%

Why This Prediction?

Jenson Brooksby is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1825 vs 1705), a higher Elo rating (1710 vs 1689) and fewer double faults per game (0.07 vs 0.09).

Player Comparison

1710.4 Elo 1689.1

1825.3 Elo (surface) 1704.9

90 Wins 161

59 Wins (surface) 78

5 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.918 Dominance ratio 1.042

77 Rank 57

25.8 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jenson Brooksby

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Corentin Moutet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jenson Brooksby Corentin Moutet

1st Serve In %

60.0%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jenson Brooksby Corentin Moutet

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.3%

38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

58.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jenson Brooksby 0 – 1 Corentin Moutet

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-29

1. round

Jenson Brooksby #77

Corentin Moutet #57

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 6

54 Service Points 74

31 First Serve In 41

25 First Serve Won 24

10 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 13

2 Break Points Faced 17

21 Winners 10

40 Unforced Errors 37

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Hard Canada Masters · 2025-07-27

R128

Corentin Moutet #46

Jenson Brooksby #102

6-2 6-1

1 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 5

37 Service Points 53

18 First Serve In 30

15 First Serve Won 15

11 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 8

1 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet — Prediction