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Jelle Sels vs Ryan Peniston — Prediction

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Jelle Sels

Netherlands

41.31%

Ryan Peniston

Great Britain

58.69%

Average Odds

2.38  /  1.53

Market probability

39.13%  /  60.87%

Why This Prediction?

Ryan Peniston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1556 vs 1503), a stronger return game (41.9% vs 37.3% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (2 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1502.6 Elo 1555.6
1569.3 Elo (surface) 1522.0
159 Wins (Challenger) 124
71 Wins (surface) 97
6 Last 15 form 4
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.796 Dominance ratio 1.055
562 Rank 508
31.1 Age 30.9
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jelle Sels

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Ryan Peniston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jelle Sels Ryan Peniston

1st Serve In %

62.9%
62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%
65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.4%
45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.2%
27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.9%
52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59
0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%
64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%
66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%
43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%
32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%
53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18
0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.49

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jelle Sels Ryan Peniston

Break Points Saved %

51.4%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

15.6%
27.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.9%
55.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%
43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jelle Sels and Ryan Peniston have never played each other.

Jelle Sels — Last 10

L L W L W L L W L W

Ryan Peniston — Last 10

L L L L L L L L L L