ATP tennis predict — Jelle Sels vs Matthew William Donald

Challenger Clay Tulln challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Jelle Sels

Netherlands

41.52%

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

58.48%

Average Odds

2.80 / 1.39

Market probability

33.17% / 66.83%

Why This Prediction?

Matthew William Donald is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1538 vs 1511) and a stronger serve (54.9% vs 51.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1553.1 Elo 1536.3

1511.1 Elo (surface) 1538.5

159 Wins (Challenger) 13

88 Wins (surface) 10

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.729 Dominance ratio 0.835

546 Rank 443

31.1 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jelle Sels

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jelle Sels Matthew William Donald

1st Serve In %

62.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.59

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jelle Sels Matthew William Donald

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

15.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jelle Sels 0 – 0 Matthew William Donald

Clay Tulln challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Matthew William Donald #443

Jelle Sels #546

6-2 6-2

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 50

35 First Serve In 35

22 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Jelle Sels vs Matthew William Donald — Prediction