ATP tennis predict — Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Toby Samuel

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

37.26%

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

62.74%

Average Odds

3.95 / 1.22

Market probability

23.60% / 76.40%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1872 vs 1673), a higher Elo rating (1750 vs 1659) and more wins on hard courts (42 vs 23).

Player Comparison

1658.8 Elo 1750.5

1673.3 Elo (surface) 1872.4

23 Wins (Challenger) 47

23 Wins (surface) 42

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 0.678

376 Rank 112

22.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Toby Samuel

1st Serve In %

—

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Toby Samuel

Break Points Saved %

—

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Dylan Hara Friend 0 – 0 Toby Samuel

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #376

Toby Samuel #112

6-4 7-5

0 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 6

68 Service Points 59

48 First Serve In 34

35 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Toby Samuel — Prediction