ATP tennis predict — Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

64.68%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

35.32%

Average Odds

1.22 / 3.52

Market probability

74.26% / 25.74%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1607 vs 1501) and a higher Elo rating (1589 vs 1506).

Player Comparison

1588.6 Elo 1506.1

1606.9 Elo (surface) 1500.6

20 Wins (Challenger) 305

20 Wins (surface) 273

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.746 Dominance ratio 1.231

380 Rank 512

22.6 Age 35.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

—

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

—

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Dylan Hara Friend 0 – 0 Hiroki Moriya

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - 1. round

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #376

Hiroki Moriya #510

6-2 6-0

5 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

42 Service Points 48

25 First Serve In 25

18 First Serve Won 13

13 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction