ATP tennis predict — Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Connor Church

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

84.99%

Connor Church

Canada

15.01%

Average Odds

1.09 / 6.31

Market probability

85.27% / 14.73%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1607 vs 1500), a higher Elo rating (1589 vs 1500) and more career match wins (20 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1588.6 Elo 1500

1606.9 Elo (surface) 1500

20 Wins (Challenger) 0

20 Wins (surface) 0

9 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.746 Dominance ratio 0.746

376 Rank -

22.6 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Connor Church

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Connor Church

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

52.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Connor Church

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

23.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Dylan Hara Friend 0 – 0 Connor Church

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - round of 16

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #376

Connor Church #-

6-2 7-6

8 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

81 Service Points 71

46 First Serve In 37

36 First Serve Won 28

18 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.3

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Connor Church — Prediction