ATP tennis predict — Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Colton Smith

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

49.75%

Colton Smith

USA

50.25%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.61

Market probability

42.93% / 57.07%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1700.4 Elo 1707.4

1704.8 Elo (surface) 1580.7

25 Wins (Challenger) 48

25 Wins (surface) 37

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.018 Dominance ratio 1.019

314 Rank 197

22.6 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

—

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Dylan Hara Friend 0 – 0 Colton Smith

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #314

Colton Smith #197

5-7 7-6 6-3

7 Aces 4

15 Double Faults 11

133 Service Points 124

74 First Serve In 72

50 First Serve Won 50

29 Second Serve Won 22

13 Break Points Saved 11

16 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Colton Smith — Prediction