ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs Pedro Martinez

Challenger Clay Como challenger · R16 14:15

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

33.39%

Pedro Martinez

Spain

66.61%

Average Odds

2.54 / 1.47

Market probability

36.66% / 63.34%

Why This Prediction?

Pedro Martinez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1623 vs 1558), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1639 vs 1594) and more wins on clay courts (88 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1558.4 Elo 1623.1

1594.2 Elo (surface) 1638.7

157 Wins (Challenger) 160

55 Wins (surface) 121

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 0.914

242 Rank 148

28.1 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Pedro Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Pedro Martinez

1st Serve In %

57.7%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

56.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

65.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

56.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Pedro Martinez

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

49.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke 0 – 0 Pedro Martinez

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Jay Clarke #242

Pedro Martinez #148

7-5 3-6 6-4

1 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

127 Service Points 104

82 First Serve In 82

48 First Serve Won 52

21 Second Serve Won 8

15 Break Points Saved 5

20 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Jay Clarke vs Pedro Martinez — Prediction