ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs John Sperle

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

64.77%

John Sperle

Germany

35.23%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.49

Market probability

73.17% / 26.83%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Clarke is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1509), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1655 vs 1515) and more wins on clay courts (60 vs 14).

Player Comparison

1663.7 Elo 1509.0

1654.9 Elo (surface) 1515.1

162 Wins (Challenger) 16

60 Wins (surface) 14

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 1.012

247 Rank 692

28.2 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

John Sperle

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke John Sperle

1st Serve In %

57.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.40

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke John Sperle

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke 0 – 0 John Sperle

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Jay Clarke #247

John Sperle #692

7-5 6-3

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 20

17 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Jay Clarke vs John Sperle — Prediction