ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs Giuseppe La Vela

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · R16 10:00

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

63.05%

Giuseppe La Vela

Italy

36.95%

Average Odds

1.15 / 4.61

Market probability

80.03% / 19.97%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Clarke is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1670 vs 1519), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1666 vs 1514) and more wins on clay courts (61 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1670.4 Elo 1518.8

1666.0 Elo (surface) 1513.6

163 Wins (Challenger) 9

61 Wins (surface) 9

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 0.810

247 Rank 553

28.2 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Giuseppe La Vela

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Giuseppe La Vela

1st Serve In %

57.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.40

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

45.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Giuseppe La Vela

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

53.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke and Giuseppe La Vela have never played each other.

Jay Clarke vs Giuseppe La Vela — Prediction