ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino

Challenger Clay Palermo challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

54.10%

Gabriele Piraino

Italy

45.90%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.61

Market probability

64.60% / 35.40%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1660.1 Elo 1553.2

1648.5 Elo (surface) 1540.2

165 Wins (Challenger) 35

63 Wins (surface) 29

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 0.977

236 Rank 386

28.2 Age 22.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gabriele Piraino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Gabriele Piraino

1st Serve In %

57.7%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

55.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

58.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Gabriele Piraino

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

50.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

49.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke and Gabriele Piraino have never played each other.

Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino — Prediction