ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs Felix Gill

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

49.61%

Felix Gill

Great Britain

50.39%

Average Odds

2.07 / 1.70

Market probability

45.09% / 54.91%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1661.8 Elo 1662.2

1653.2 Elo (surface) 1654.6

161 Wins (Challenger) 55

59 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 0.985

232 Rank 213

28.2 Age 24.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Felix Gill

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Felix Gill

1st Serve In %

57.7%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

57.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

43.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Felix Gill

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke 0 – 0 Felix Gill

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Jay Clarke #232

Felix Gill #213

6-7 6-1 6-3

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 27

20 Second Serve Won 26

1 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Jay Clarke vs Felix Gill — Prediction