ATP tennis predict — Jay Clarke vs Carlo Alberto Caniato

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · QF 18:00

Predicted probability

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

33.02%

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

66.98%

Average Odds

1.92 / 1.81

Market probability

48.53% / 51.47%

Why This Prediction?

Carlo Alberto Caniato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1730 vs 1677), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1746 vs 1676) and a stronger serve (72.5% vs 57.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1677.3 Elo 1729.5

1676.5 Elo (surface) 1746.2

164 Wins (Challenger) 27

62 Wins (surface) 25

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 1.626

247 Rank 386

28.2 Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Carlo Alberto Caniato

1st Serve In %

57.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.40

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.2%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

73.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

42.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

54.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jay Clarke Carlo Alberto Caniato

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

68.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jay Clarke and Carlo Alberto Caniato have never played each other.

Jay Clarke vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Prediction