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Jaroslav Vrba vs Spencer Johnson — Prediction

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 20:00

Predicted probability

Jaroslav Vrba

Czech Republic

5.84%

Average Odds

5.91  /  1.10

Market probability

15.69%  /  84.31%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1437), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1645 vs 1500) and better recent form (11 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1437.5 Elo 1652.5
1500 Elo (surface) 1645.1
0 Wins (Challenger) 15
0 Wins (surface) 15
0 Last 15 form 11
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.921 Dominance ratio 0.921
1128 Rank 449
None Age 23.7
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaroslav Vrba

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaroslav Vrba Spencer Johnson

1st Serve In %

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaroslav Vrba Spencer Johnson

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaroslav Vrba and Spencer Johnson have never played each other.

Jaroslav Vrba — Last 0

No recent matches found.

Spencer Johnson — Last 10

L W W L W L L W W W