ATP tennis predict — Jan Lennard Struff vs Alexander Shevchenko

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jan Lennard Struff

Germany

35.93%

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

64.07%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.21

Market probability

57.11% / 42.89%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Shevchenko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1719 vs 1679), a stronger return game (44.7% vs 38.4% of return points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.11).

Player Comparison

1716.9 Elo 1715.7

1679.2 Elo (surface) 1718.9

327 Wins 89

116 Wins (surface) 35

9 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 1.046

41 Rank 84

36.2 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Lennard Struff

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Lennard Struff Alexander Shevchenko

1st Serve In %

57.9%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.5%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.79

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.2%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

39.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Lennard Struff Alexander Shevchenko

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

72.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.4%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Lennard Struff 2 – 0 Alexander Shevchenko

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-21

1. round

Jan Lennard Struff #41

Alexander Shevchenko #84

3-6 7-6 6-4

15 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 6

88 Service Points 94

43 First Serve In 53

37 First Serve Won 38

23 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

43 Winners 23

54 Unforced Errors 37

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Metz · 2024-11-04

R32

Jan Lennard Struff #40

Alexander Shevchenko #64

3-6 6-4 6-4

10 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 7

82 Service Points 106

57 First Serve In 54

44 First Serve Won 37

11 Second Serve Won 26

5 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

Q1

Jan Lennard Struff #167

Alexander Shevchenko #157

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 0

59 Service Points 54

39 First Serve In 34

29 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 3