ATP tennis predict — Jan Kumstat vs Thijs Boogaard

Challenger Clay Bunschoten challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

68.74%

Thijs Boogaard

Netherlands

31.26%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.06

Market probability

54.64% / 45.36%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.4% vs 59.3% of service points won), more career match wins (12 vs 4) and a higher Elo rating (1657 vs 1632).

Player Comparison

1656.8 Elo 1632.5

1680.3 Elo (surface) 1630.8

12 Wins (Challenger) 4

9 Wins (surface) 2

10 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.993

612 Rank 529

19.5 Age 18.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Thijs Boogaard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Thijs Boogaard

1st Serve In %

—

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Thijs Boogaard

Break Points Saved %

—

65.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

43.9%

Break Points Converted %

28.3%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Kumstat 0 – 0 Thijs Boogaard

Clay Bunschoten challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Jan Kumstat #612

Thijs Boogaard #529

6-1 6-1

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

40 Service Points 43

26 First Serve In 26

22 First Serve Won 10

6 Second Serve Won 5

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Jan Kumstat vs Thijs Boogaard — Prediction