ATP tennis predict — Jan Kumstat vs Sumit Nagal

Challenger Clay Liberec challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

56.21%

Sumit Nagal

India

43.79%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.96

Market probability

52.41% / 47.59%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1764 vs 1711), a stronger serve (64.9% vs 58.4% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1734 vs 1713).

Player Comparison

1734.1 Elo 1712.6

1763.7 Elo (surface) 1710.6

16 Wins (Challenger) 221

13 Wins (surface) 171

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.032 Dominance ratio 1.034

508 Rank 246

19.6 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Sumit Nagal

1st Serve In %

—

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

61.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

38.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Sumit Nagal

Break Points Saved %

—

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

28.3%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Kumstat 0 – 0 Sumit Nagal

Clay Prague 2 challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Jan Kumstat #347

Sumit Nagal #239

7-5 6-3

6 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 62

36 First Serve In 40

24 First Serve Won 23

20 Second Serve Won 9

7 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Clay Liberec challenger · 2026-08-01

SF

Jan Kumstat #508

Sumit Nagal #246

7-5 6-4

9 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

67 Service Points 77

42 First Serve In 54

29 First Serve Won 33

17 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Jan Kumstat vs Sumit Nagal — Prediction