ATP tennis predict — Jan Kumstat vs Max Houkes

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

74.87%

Max Houkes

Netherlands

25.13%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.13

Market probability

56.35% / 43.65%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1817 vs 1614), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1833 vs 1650) and a stronger return game (39.8% vs 37.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1817.1 Elo 1614.3

1833.1 Elo (surface) 1649.8

21 Wins (Challenger) 66

16 Wins (surface) 65

13 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.305 Dominance ratio 1.073

336 Rank 242

19.6 Age 26.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Max Houkes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Max Houkes

1st Serve In %

—

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

57.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Max Houkes

Break Points Saved %

—

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

28.3%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Kumstat 0 – 0 Max Houkes

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-13

R16

Jan Kumstat #336

Max Houkes #242

6-4 7-6

11 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 88

46 First Serve In 45

38 First Serve Won 32

14 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Jan Kumstat vs Max Houkes — Prediction