ATP tennis predict — Jan Kumstat vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · F 13:00

Predicted probability

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

71.89%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

28.11%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.30

Market probability

59.59% / 40.41%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (69.2% vs 57.1% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1858 vs 1766) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1891 vs 1780).

Player Comparison

1857.6 Elo 1766.4

1891.1 Elo (surface) 1780.2

24 Wins (Challenger) 71

19 Wins (surface) 46

14 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.214 Dominance ratio 0.909

336 Rank 319

19.6 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

—

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Kumstat Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

—

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

28.3%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Kumstat 0 – 0 Marvin Moeller

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-16

F

Jan Kumstat #347

Marvin Moeller #327

4-6 7-6 7-5

20 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 2

115 Service Points 112

71 First Serve In 67

53 First Serve Won 51

26 Second Serve Won 25

8 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Jan Kumstat vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction