ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Taro Daniel

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · R16 21:30

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

45.06%

Taro Daniel

Japan

54.94%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.40

Market probability

61.38% / 38.62%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1819.1 Elo 1775.9

1535.1 Elo (surface) 1700.8

198 Wins (Challenger) 243

49 Wins (surface) 119

13 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.374 Dominance ratio 0.904

77 Rank 186

30.2 Age 33.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Taro Daniel

1st Serve In %

60.7%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Taro Daniel

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

54.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 1 Taro Daniel

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-20

R16

Taro Daniel #186

Jan Choinski #77

6-4 6-3

3 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 1

64 Service Points 45

35 First Serve In 25

25 First Serve Won 22

10 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Hong Kong · 2024-01-01

Q2

Taro Daniel #75

Jan Choinski #160

6-4 3-6 6-4

8 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 0

91 Service Points 77

54 First Serve In 52

40 First Serve Won 38

21 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jan Choinski vs Taro Daniel — Prediction