ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Olle Wallin

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

64.32%

Olle Wallin

Sweden

35.68%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.17

Market probability

77.65% / 22.35%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Choinski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1702), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1831 vs 1733) and more wins on clay courts (143 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1813.5 Elo 1701.9

1830.8 Elo (surface) 1732.9

195 Wins (Challenger) 25

143 Wins (surface) 21

12 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.141 Dominance ratio 1.144

88 Rank 386

30.1 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Olle Wallin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Olle Wallin

1st Serve In %

60.7%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Olle Wallin

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

38.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 0 Olle Wallin

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Jan Choinski #88

Olle Wallin #386

6-4 7-5

10 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 1

77 Service Points 81

43 First Serve In 46

35 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Jan Choinski vs Olle Wallin — Prediction