ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering

ATP Hard Winston Salem · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

47.72%

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

52.28%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.10

Market probability

55.26% / 44.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1806.7 Elo 1650.1

1525.4 Elo (surface) 1664.3

28 Wins 5

9 Wins (surface) 4

6 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.993 Dominance ratio 0.816

77 Rank 418

30.2 Age 19.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Mees Rottgering

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Mees Rottgering

1st Serve In %

60.7%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Mees Rottgering

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 0 Mees Rottgering

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-24

1. round

Mees Rottgering #389

Jan Choinski #75

7-5 2-6 6-4

10 Aces 9

9 Double Faults 3

91 Service Points 95

55 First Serve In 51

39 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 25

4 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 12

30 Winners 29

51 Unforced Errors 33

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering — Prediction