ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Francesco Passaro

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

60.74%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

39.26%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.53

Market probability

63.09% / 36.91%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Choinski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1802 vs 1680), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1816 vs 1700) and more wins on clay courts (141 vs 101).

Player Comparison

1802.1 Elo 1679.5

1816.3 Elo (surface) 1699.7

193 Wins (Challenger) 119

141 Wins (surface) 101

12 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.887

222 Rank 155

30.1 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

60.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

34.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 1 – 0 Francesco Passaro

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-27

1. round

Jan Choinski #88

Francesco Passaro #220

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 4

51 Service Points 52

37 First Serve In 33

31 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Clay Bad Waltersdorf CH · 2025-09-15

QF

Jan Choinski #227

Francesco Passaro #145

7-6(4) 6-3

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 67

42 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 29

19 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jan Choinski vs Francesco Passaro — Prediction