ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Federico Agustin Gomez

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

74.58%

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

25.42%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.10

Market probability

69.82% / 30.18%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Choinski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1821 vs 1640), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1841 vs 1658) and a stronger serve (68.3% vs 56.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1821.2 Elo 1639.8

1840.5 Elo (surface) 1658.3

196 Wins (Challenger) 95

144 Wins (surface) 75

12 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.252 Dominance ratio 0.801

88 Rank 191

30.1 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Federico Agustin Gomez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Federico Agustin Gomez

1st Serve In %

60.7%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Federico Agustin Gomez

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

34.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 0 Federico Agustin Gomez

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-08-01

SF

Jan Choinski #88

Federico Agustin Gomez #191

6-4 6-2

3 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 5

50 Service Points 63

26 First Serve In 40

21 First Serve Won 22

14 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Jan Choinski vs Federico Agustin Gomez — Prediction