ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Botic Van De Zandschulp

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

35.51%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

64.49%

Average Odds

3.78 / 1.27

Market probability

25.15% / 74.85%

Why This Prediction?

Botic Van De Zandschulp is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1704 vs 1515), a stronger return game (42.9% vs 35.8% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (115 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1790.9 Elo 1757.3

1514.5 Elo (surface) 1704.0

28 Wins 172

9 Wins (surface) 115

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.995 Dominance ratio 1.145

76 Rank 70

30.2 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Botic Van De Zandschulp

1st Serve In %

60.7%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Botic Van De Zandschulp

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 2 Botic Van De Zandschulp

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Botic Van De Zandschulp #70

Jan Choinski #76

6-3 6-1 7-6

8 Aces 16

2 Double Faults 6

88 Service Points 87

53 First Serve In 58

37 First Serve Won 51

16 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 2

17 Winners 38

36 Unforced Errors 25

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Clay Braunschweig CH · 2025-07-07

R32

Botic Van De Zandschulp #92

Jan Choinski #200

6-1 6-0

4 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

44 Service Points 38

25 First Serve In 24

22 First Serve Won 10

9 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Scheveningen CH · 2018-07-16

R32

Botic Van De Zandschulp #511

Jan Choinski #271

7-5 6-2

3 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 53

35 First Serve In 38

27 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 5