ATP tennis predict — Jan Choinski vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

77.83%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

22.17%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.29

Market probability

78.28% / 21.72%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Choinski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1809 vs 1551), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1825 vs 1583) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1809.4 Elo 1551.1

1825.4 Elo (surface) 1583.0

194 Wins (Challenger) 76

142 Wins (surface) 76

12 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.053 Dominance ratio 0.915

88 Rank 264

30.1 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

60.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.9%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.5%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jan Choinski Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Jan Choinski #88

Alex Barrena #264

6-3 6-2

5 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 71

34 First Serve In 43

28 First Serve Won 23

8 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Jan Choinski vs Alex Barrena — Prediction