ATP tennis predict — James Trotter vs Kaito Uesugi

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:40

Predicted probability

James Trotter

Japan

86.26%

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

13.74%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.34

Market probability

78.48% / 21.52%

Why This Prediction?

James Trotter is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1560 vs 1352), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1581 vs 1347) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1559.6 Elo 1352.0

1580.8 Elo (surface) 1347.5

98 Wins (Challenger) 24

93 Wins (surface) 23

8 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.101 Dominance ratio 0.921

464 Rank 1394

27.1 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

James Trotter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Kaito Uesugi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

James Trotter Kaito Uesugi

1st Serve In %

60.4%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

40.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

23.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.6%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

James Trotter Kaito Uesugi

Break Points Saved %

52.4%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

26.6%

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

James Trotter 0 – 0 Kaito Uesugi

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Kaito Uesugi #1394

James Trotter #464

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.3 Average Odds 1.2

James Trotter vs Kaito Uesugi — Prediction