ATP tennis predict — James Mccabe vs Bernard Tomic

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · R16

Predicted probability

James Mccabe

Australia

59.23%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

40.77%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.91

Market probability

51.21% / 48.79%

Why This Prediction?

James Mccabe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1680 vs 1620), a higher Elo rating (1657 vs 1654) and a stronger serve (63.7% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1657.2 Elo 1653.5

1679.6 Elo (surface) 1620.0

102 Wins (Challenger) 147

91 Wins (surface) 114

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.838 Dominance ratio 1.045

242 Rank 206

23.0 Age 33.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

James Mccabe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

James Mccabe Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

65.3%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.6%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

James Mccabe Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

66.0%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

70.5%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

James Mccabe 0 – 0 Bernard Tomic

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Bernard Tomic #206

James Mccabe #242

7-6 6-4

7 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

81 Service Points 61

51 First Serve In 40

33 First Serve Won 28

12 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

James Mccabe vs Bernard Tomic — Prediction